Four outcomes that will shape Pompey's future
Outcome 1: Liquidation.
The worst possible outcome (obviously). This, as far as I can see, will come around if a controlling vote of the creditors go against the 20p to the £ CVA written up by Andronikou, and then vote against any 'improved' CVA offer written up by UHY within the 21-day period. The result? We lose everything, and have to start again.
Outcome 2: The Griffins' proposal.
In my eyes, the second worst possible outcome. To even think that a business in administration can happily pay 99p to the £ to it's creditors is laughable. What's the point in going into admin then? It makes no sense. Which is why I believe this proposal is firmly backed by HMRC.
By the club having no option but to opt for this proposal, it effectively leaves us with a lobotomised Pompey - a complete vegetable that will only just be able to tick over on a day-to-day basis as a business and going concern only. No money would be available for playing or coaching staff during the re-payment periods.
The result? Relegation after relegation. The club would be alive merely to prove a point to the rest of the footballing world, as told by HMRC: Pay your taxes, or end up like Portsmouth. I'm not fully convinced HMRC want to shut us down; football clubs, no matter what size, provide nice little tax income streams for HMRC. To lose that is like losing some of your monthly wages.
Outcome 3: The CVA is agreed.
Whilst the Griffins' proposal is clearly one 'for the tax-payer', the CVA by UHY is the best all-rounder. It means the creditors at least get something, but it also means the club can survive, and most importantly, learn from it's previous mistakes. We would have something left over to at least build a squad that could see us stave off relegation to League 1. The tax payers may not like it, but it's 20p to the £ of something, not nothing at all.
It also allows someone to come in and take over the club, albeit Chainrai or someone else. Chainrai may not be the best option, but he could at least keep us ticking over at a comfortable rate whilst re-gaining his money, with the view to sell us on in the future after we're back in a reasonable shape.
The result? We survive, and have a chance to re-build. From the ashes of empires, and all that.
And outcome 4? The white knight.
Out of all of this, a white knight comes galloping in, saves the club, pays off all creditors, re-gains control of all pockets of land from Chainrai and Gaydamak, builds a training complex, re-develops Fratton, re-builds the squad, gets in the right manager, and sends us charging back into the Premier League, tearing all the doubters to pieces in the process.
The result? We're back.
But it won't happen. It's the stuff of dreams.
I think our absolute best bet is outcome 3. Although I have my fears.
Written by powered_by_pies, and originally posted in the forum: click here.
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