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Chix's Chatter - '3 from 3' - Set Two




In a bid to retain our premiership status Chix continues his assessment of Pompey's chances with his second set of '3 from 3'

Now no laughing fellas! I`m the first to admit that my magical mathematical system has not got off to a good start, but I am confident that all will come good in the end and Pompey's Premiership status will remain in tact.

If you've yet to understand the logic behind '3 from 3' click here but basically it is my way of monitoring whether we are on track to remain in the Premier League for another season.

I take each group of three games in chronological order and try and assess where we can obtain a 'minimum' of three points from each set of three games. When averaged over the season '3 from 3'equates to 38 points which basically ensures Pompey's Premiership safety .. It is easy really (honest)!

So how am I doing so far?

Well I started with 'Set One', predicting 4 points from our first 3 games, but as we know 'Lady Luck' was not on our side against Fulham and Birmingham and despite an improved performance against Arsenal we got the thumping we expected - So four points predicted but none gained, but all is not lost, we are only three points (that's just one win) adrift from where we need to be and there is a whole season in front of us.

Anyway, those games are now in the past and there is no point crying over spilt Stella, so without further ado here is my take on where I think we should collect our first set of three points - Remember I am targeting a 'minimum' of three points from three games, but obviously I'm not gonna be upset if I'm wrong and we achieve more … especially as we already have a deficit to make up!

Man City (H)

As expected Man City have started the season well.

A 2-0 away win at Blackburn on the opening day of season was swiftly followed by a 1-0 home victory over Wolves a week later but despite their 2-0 away win at Palace in Carling Cup in midweek I can not see them continuing to keep clean sheets. I predict Given, Bridge, Toure and (now) Lescott & co. will concede a goal and it will be against Pompey.

The question is will David James manage to keep his first clean sheet of the season against his former employers?

With Tevez, Robinho, Adebayor and Bellamy supplied by the likes of Ireland and Barry it is hard to see how he can (especially with Distin now departed), so I have to predict Man City to also score, but I think it may only be the one.

I believe this will be the game that halts Man City's 100% record and sees Pompey grab their first Premiership point of the season

Chix's prediction: Score draw and our first point towards my '3 from 3'... but whatever the result just remember 11 March 2006! That will make you smile


Bolton (H)

For me, this one is simples!

Bolton are currently pointless. A 0-1 home defeat to Sunderland on the opening day was followed by a 0-1 defeat to Hull. Two defeats against teams Gary Megson would expect to be in and around come the end of the season is not a good start. Add to that the fact that before they come to Fratton there is the small matter of Liverpool at home to deal with and I can see troubles ahead for the Reebok boys.

I think The Wanderers will arrive at Fratton without an point (or even a goal) on the board and occupying a breath alongside Pompey in the bottom three and although a run of games that sees Pompey (A) , Stoke (H) and Birmingham (A) which they will surely be targeting to get their season off and running, I think they will return to Lancashire empty handed

Chix's prediction: Home win A fruitless return to Fratton for Sean Davis and Matty Taylor and our first win of the season.


Aston Villa (A)

Being so far in the future it is hard to predict what could happen between now and 19th September but to date, Villa have lost one and won one.

A 0-2 home defeat to Wigan on the opening day was followed by an impressive 3-1 win at Anfield and although they are currently smarting over the away goals defeat to Rapid Vienna in the Europa League qualifiers I believe Martin O'Neills men are made of sterner stuff and will dispatch Fulham (H) and local rivals Birmingham (A) before entertaining Pompey

Three wins from four games will no doubt put Aston Vila in the top six before our visit and despite us not losing there for three seasons I can unfortunately only see one result,

Chix's prediction: Home win Anything Pompey get will be a bonus.


Summary

So once again I`m going to predict 4 points from the next 9 on offer, which if it comes off will give us 4 points from 6 games, still not on target to avoid the drop but hopefully a step (albeit not a giant one) in the right direction..

So do you agree with me ?

How do you think we can obtain a minimum of three points from these three games?

Perhaps you think we will get more or less than the 3 needed or 4 I've predicted.

Post your thoughts below

Oh and don't forget the Vital Pompey Prediction League
Here are the links Manchester City , Bolton Wanderers Aston Villa

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Prediction League

The Journalist

Writer: Chix Mail feedback, articles or suggestions

Date:Saturday August 29 2009

Time: 6:59AM

Your Comments

It was hard predicting results when I stuggling to predict our starting XI .. still at least we have a team that can compete now !
Chix
Hello Chix, just to keep you honest let's compare your system versus my system - which we discussed at the beginning of this series - for reference purposes here it is again (re-edited for clarity but exactly the same formula): My home tactic is to beat 8 of the 11 “bottom” teams at home, and draw with the remaining 3 teams (27 points at home). My away tactic is to draw with 7 of the “bottom” teams, lose 3 games and pick up 1 win (10 points away). That's 37 points from the bottom 11 The 11 bottom teams I pick as being: Birmingham, Blackburn, Bolton, Burnley, Fulham, Hull, Stoke. Sunderland, West Ham, Wigan and Wolves. If we drop points against these “bottom” teams then we would have to make up those points against the better 8 teams. So the minimum result against Fulham should have been a draw. The minimum result against Birmingham and Arsenal was a loss. So according to my formula Pompey should be on a minimum of 1 point and a maximum of 4 points by now. As we are not at the target, today's game against City is considered an important catchup game where points are Vital! The next game home to Bolton really needs to be a home win, while Villa away I expect to lose. So for my system to be on course, at the end of the Villa game Pompey needs to be either on a minimum of 2 points, an expected median of 5 points (1 home win, 1 home draw and 1 away draw) or a maximum of 7 points.
StuartM
StuartM
Hi ya mate.. yep I remember your system and think I commented at the time that it was very wekk thought out. It'll be interesting to see how we both do - Perhaps we should do a joint article a quarter of the way in to compare ? - Anyway .. I only worry (for yours) is having to consider a win at Manc City to be vital .. Would you really go into it 'expecting' rather than 'hoping' to win ?..
Chix
Predict a result? I can't even predict the starting line-up at the moment! Exciting stuff, though.
Et_tu_Pompeii
Et-Tu
I know what you mean .. I started to write this yesterday afternoon and was thinking about what we could do against each of these teams and then we went and signed another player .. and another player .. and another player.. let's hope there are a couple of gems in there eh !
Chix
Hi Chix, I think we are going to get an absolute battering from ManC tomorrow, unfortunately. The players we have signed will not all be able to play and they will not have played together either. Also, we have a gaping hole in defence. Yep, I think we will have players, some of them with something to prove by the time we go to Bolton and hopefully, we will win that one. Well, we will win that one! Aston Villa? I would like to think our players will have got a game under their belt by now, we have signed a really good defender to replace Distin, and maybe we go for one of Hart's famous draws.
Gandor1
Gandor
Some interesting comments especially about new playes gelling.. but City have to integrate Lescott so they will have an unfamiliar feel to their back line too .. and not all of their players have played together either .. There is a gulf in class but I just feel that Citeh are at the battering level yet and both Blackburn and Wolves created enough chances to win the games .. City may be expensive and good but they are not (yet) a great side and are definately beatable.. although I am going for the draw.. Bolton I agree with you totally and if we could snatch a point (however we play) against Villa it would be priceless
Chix
Bah systems!! Lets get some points.
eastneydave
systems? take each game at a time, and win them all. we need to get some points on the board... particually as our last "3 from 3" failed to give us anything.
pompeycarpet
oh, and I think we should (need) to be getting 4 points from the next 3 games.
pompeycarpet
i can see why you think we might get a draw tomorrow with citys defence and lescott etc but i don't really see us putting our chances away just yet, but i reakon we will get chances and prolly some sitters, and the result completely depends on if we have anyone their to put em away lol =/
pompeym@
Eastneydave and Carpet
Are you telling me you believe Paul Hart has not worked out where he expects to get points this season.. taking each game as it comes has proved time and again to be a fools game..
Chix
Pompeym@
Can't really disagree with you about putting the chances away to be honest but I just think that Freddy & Utaka (and Donna to some degree) are now off the mark for the season so confidence in front of goal should be high (even though they scored against (only) Hereford !) I reckon we just might sneak one... And as Carpet says we do need to get some points soon.
Chix
i really hope your right about utaka mate, he's looked alright this season but i just wish Hart would play him upfront, he wouldn't have to run so much (and we all know how much he hates to run) and his finish is good and ofc when he's infront of goal he likes to actually use his speed which is always nice to see lol
pompeym@
chix, he probably will have anb idea of which teams we are LIKELY to take points off. He will probably have noted down when we play every team away from home, and decided that every one of those, we should be aiming for a draw minimum, and should not be conceeding any goals. Home games, hart will have pin pointed games he will be dissapointed if we don't win, and ones he will be surprised if we pick up points in. However yes, i am suggesting that he hasn't drawn up a plan of games he EXPECTS to win. EXPECTING to win any game is the best route to losing it.
pompeycarpet
Chix I agree with your defending-comments. You are right about Utaka and Piquionne. Tomorrow they both start up front. I really believe that we can upset them. If football had to be guessed, there would be no surprises. Bolton almost got a draw against Pool today. Burnely won against Man Utd, so why can't we get some luck and win against City?? PuP
Pompey Malta
Please note that Davis will not be returning to Pompey. He got sent off against Liverpool.
Pompey Malta
Aah, shame about Davis. I bet we would have wound him up!!
hammersmithblue
I would like to think that your predictions can come true chix, but I dont have the same level of confidence that some of you guys have, we are still going to need time to gel, the loss of Distin in my mind is a catastrophic failure and Im not sure how our back line is going to fair against, well a big bag of stars, I do agree that those stars also need time to gel as a team, but any one of them can provide the spark in a blink of an eye that I think will be our undoing. I will be getting up at stupid o'clock in the morning to watch this, and I will be shouting and screaming at my goggle box, as I do for every televised game, but I dont have the feeling this time that maybe we can sneak a goal and then shut up shop, I just cant see it!!!! As for Bolton, we really do need to swing into action and get the 3 points, and I think we can, so your 3 from 3 should be okay this week, Really dont think we are gonna drag an extra point out of these three fixtures though....And Im the optimist in my family!!!! Whatever happens, blue blood still courses through these veins, PUP
NZ_Portsmuff
Put it this way, if we don't get 3 points against Bolton (minus Sean Davis), we are in serious trouble. They looked pretty decent today against Liverpool, but at home against a team in a similar predicament to us. My heart says 5 points but I'd be happy with 3.
PompeyFrippy
Caarpet
I think you've made a really valid point to counteract the one you made earlier - You've just described a 'system' or 'plan' something you queired the need for in a earlier post .... amyway.. point is this is the way I've decided to track it following the debate we had pre-season.. It's only a bit of fun and if we end up with even just one more point that I am suggesting I'll be well chuffed
Chix
Pompey Malta
That's the spirit mate .. They are beatable and would it be great to win the the first ''Abu Dhabi derby’ Shame about Davis .. not .. but is that actually right as it was two yellows and not a straight red?
Chix
NZ_Portsmuff
Welcome to Vital Pompey mate - I know what you mean about City's players .. its a virtual who's who of the premier league .. Still fingers crossed .. but as you say Bolton is the cruical one in this set of three if we lose to City and then fail to win that we are in (more) trouble .. I'd be getting worried then
Chix
Frippy
I think I just agreed with you in my previous response.. Three is a must rather than a minimum from this '3 from 3'
Chix
ah well, not long too go now, only a couple of hours away, i have just read a couple of articles claiming that Jamo could be on his way, if we let him go we may as well consign ourselves to the Championship, I really hope that this is not the case! I dont know wether I am excited or anxious about this game.
NZ_Portsmuff
chix: yup, I'm always confused, and am always changing my mind...
pompeycarpet
Can see nothing other than City's forwards having a field day against our defence. Just don't see any return at all today. I'll stick with my prediction that we won't get our first point until September, and something tells me it might not be until Everton...
pentonpompey
Hard lines, guys. City played off form today, but Pompey were even worse. You didn't have a shot requiring a save from Given until the 88th minute, from Nugest. On that form I worry for you this season. And especially as Burnley, Birmingham and Wolves have all started the season better than yourselves
Sindbad
Sinbad well be ok mate.. you concentrate on breaking into the top four and we'll worry about getting out of the bottom three.. as for the clubs you mention.. actually everybody has started better than us !
Chix
 

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